UK Election 2010 – Change theory and the ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ suggests no change of Government
There is a general acceptance that change happens when the forces for change overwhelm the forces of stability. This can be negative (or away from) as in the “I’ve had enough of this” scenario or positive (and towards) as in “I fancy some of that”. Depending upon personal preference or culture you are likely to be mainly a ‘towards’ or an ‘away from’ person.
So, back to the election. In the autumn of 2009, the economy was shaky, the media generally managed to find a cloud for the rare and occasional silver linings and the electorate were generally annoyed (if anti-government) or disappointed (if pro-government). In this environment, the official opposition were pushing a very positive, future change message. So, the negative or away from forces were stacked against the government, which, allied to the very positive future change message of the opposition, saw a huge swing in the polls towards the opposition and a general assumption that a change of government was a done deal. In short, all of the change dials were turned up to maximum.
So, what’s changed? Well, lots of things but this blog is about change theory and how this applies on a grand scale. At this time, there appear to have been two major shifts – the economy is showing clear and obvious signs of recovery (reducing the ‘away from’ change forces) and the opposition appear to have lost some momentum on their positive change message. The wall of change which was about to be bulldozed form both sides now appears to be wobbling in balance.
Back in 2004 Surowieki produced his classic work ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’ in which he identified that the many are generally much smarter than the few in making tough decisions. We’re about to find out on a grand scale if the forces for change model stands up to a major piece of crowd wisdom.
My personal experience suggests that inertia gives a slight advantage to the status quo – I’ll stick my neck out and say that there will be no change of government in the 2010 UK general election. With the proviso of another downturn or as Macmillan would have said “events dear boy, events”.
So, back to the election. In the autumn of 2009, the economy was shaky, the media generally managed to find a cloud for the rare and occasional silver linings and the electorate were generally annoyed (if anti-government) or disappointed (if pro-government). In this environment, the official opposition were pushing a very positive, future change message. So, the negative or away from forces were stacked against the government, which, allied to the very positive future change message of the opposition, saw a huge swing in the polls towards the opposition and a general assumption that a change of government was a done deal. In short, all of the change dials were turned up to maximum.
So, what’s changed? Well, lots of things but this blog is about change theory and how this applies on a grand scale. At this time, there appear to have been two major shifts – the economy is showing clear and obvious signs of recovery (reducing the ‘away from’ change forces) and the opposition appear to have lost some momentum on their positive change message. The wall of change which was about to be bulldozed form both sides now appears to be wobbling in balance.
Back in 2004 Surowieki produced his classic work ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’ in which he identified that the many are generally much smarter than the few in making tough decisions. We’re about to find out on a grand scale if the forces for change model stands up to a major piece of crowd wisdom.
My personal experience suggests that inertia gives a slight advantage to the status quo – I’ll stick my neck out and say that there will be no change of government in the 2010 UK general election. With the proviso of another downturn or as Macmillan would have said “events dear boy, events”.
Labels: general election and change
posted by Alan Brenton at
16:25
1 Comments
